Can Carbon-Neutral Synthetic Fuel Finally Compete with Gasoline?

Here’s one possibility for a future of carbon-neutral driving: You pull into a gas station and in just five minutes pump 15 to 25 gallons of liquid hydrocarbons into your car’s fuel tank, then drive off. The only difference between today and this hypothetical tomorrow is where the fuel comes from. Instead of using petroleum pumped out of the ground, one way synthetic fuels can be made is by using carbon pulled from the air. A car burning this so-called e-gasoline would still emit CO2, but because the greenhouse gas originated in the atmosphere, no new carbon is released into the environment.

We’ve been covering carbon-neutral synthetic fuels for the better part of a decade, and the industry continues to make slow forward progress with the occasional gust of wind at its back whenever oil prices surge. Several pilot plants around the globe are already producing fuels that are burned in everything from Porsche 911 Supercup race cars to commercial jets. But as with building cars, making prototypes is easy. Figuring out large-scale manufacturing and turning a profit is the difference between an idea and a business. The fuels these plants now produce often cost an order of magnitude more than a gallon of dead-dino tea.

Making Fuel From Thin Air

The most promising news on that front comes from Prometheus Fuels, a California company backed by BMW’s iVentures that has developed a novel process for capturing carbon from the atmosphere and turning it into fuel. Prometheus pulls air through a waterfall of high-pH solution that absorbs CO2 and converts it into CO3, carbonate salt. Prometheus’ Faraday reactor then uses proprietary catalysts and renewable electricity to turn this salt solution into kerosene, which is blended into diesel and jet fuel, and oxygen that’s released to the atmosphere. The same fundamental science could also be used to produce gasoline.

The Prometheus process works at atmospheric pressure and ambient temperature, which reduces the cost of equipment and energy consumption compared to other alternatives that rely on heat or vacuum. As a result, Prometheus claims it can harvest a metric ton of carbon for less than $50, about one quarter the cost of the status quo, and make diesel for less than $5 per gallon. If true, this marks the first time a synthetic fuel is cost competitive with the petroleum-based version.

Now Comes the Hard Part

We note that some independent experts are skeptical of Prometheus’ claims, and the true test will be whether the company delivers on two commercialization projects. The first, promised in 2028, will supposedly produce 100,000 tons of e-methanol a year that can be used by the shipping industry or refined into gasoline or aviation fuel. The second project aims to provide 1 million tons of e-methanol per year by 2030.

The other positive indicator is HIF Global’s plan for an e-fuel plant in Matagorda, Texas, on the Gulf Coast. While construction hasn’t begun, the project is fully permitted and stands to be the first high-volume e-fuel facility in the world. Once completed, it should deliver 1.4 million tons of e-methanol every year, roughly the same output as a small oil refinery.

For now, these carbon-neutral liquid fuels depend on government and industry funding for the research and development required if they’re going to become self-sustaining businesses. The ongoing situation in Iran should provide some motivation to keep the money flowing. If synthetic fuels can scale up, drivers will benefit from an affordable, highly portable energy storage that isn’t saddled with all the environmental downsides and geopolitical complications of drilling for oil.