EV Range Prediction Is About to Get Much, Much Better

It's annoying enough that most electric vehicles can't travel as far as most combustion-powered ones—especially when the chargers they rely on aren't always, um, reliable—but it's downright confounding (or worse) when an EV gives you an overly optimistic range prediction and then falls vastly short of it. Will you make it to that next charger? Or simply make it home? When those range predictors' miles-to-empty figures start plummeting mid-drive, well, that's the definition of "range anxiety." HERE Technologies, a leading location data and technology provider supplying myriad OEM native navigation systems with mapping data promises to improve those predictions by introducing EV Range Factors.

A caveat: As we've pointed out, many EVs today are programmed to provide their most realistic range predictions only when a destination has been plugged in to the native navigation system, and even then we frequently end trips with less range than forecast. Predictions for all un-planned trips (or those guided by smartphone nav apps) presume your every future mile will be driven exactly as though you're following the EPA test cycle, which makes for wildly optimistic predictions.

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What Are the EV Range Factors?

HERE has sourced and will incorporate information on road elevation, slope, curvature, and even roughness into its mapping databases for more than 60 countries. All this data has been acquired using a variety of sensors onboard HERE mapping vehicles, like inertial measurement units (IMUs). It's then supplemented with additional data from other sources that further define the digital terrain. Much of this road data is used today by the advanced driving assistance systems (ADAS) in millions of vehicles that leverage HERE map content.

Predictive data for both the ambient air and road surface temperatures as well as the speed and direction of winds near the road surface will be sourced from among thousands of HERE's proprietary data suppliers. This data has currently been sourced for Europe and the USA.

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Lotus Demonstrators

Lotus equips every Eletre SUV and new Emeya electric hyper-GT with HERE Technologies' full EV navigation package, complete with the Range Factors noted above, plus real-time and historical traffic data. They also benefit from the HERE EV Charge Points global database of EV charging locations, which includes plug characteristics and near real-time availability information. Leveraging all of this data, HERE Navigation will provide full predictive routing, calculating the most optimal routes, prescribing the most efficient number and duration of charging stops. Naturally all of this real-time data derives from the cloud, with map database and routing software updates pushed over the air.

How Much More Accurate?

HERE was unwilling to be pinned down on a percentage improvement to expect when employing EV Range Factors, citing the wide variance in vehicle types and the great variation in impact of various factors, and the fact that testing is ongoing with several global automakers. All we know for sure is that our experience with the many electric vehicles in our long-term test fleet suggests there's a LOT of room for improvement in range prediction, and this approach surely can't help but make things better.

How/When Will EV Range Factors Become Available?

HERE works on some level with nearly every global automaker that offers navigation, and many currently use HERE's cloud-based navigation software. EV Range Factors is currently in use by two leading global automakers, with multiple OEMs in discussions with HERE on the service. But given the extent to which range anxiety currently stands as a barrier to EV adoption, it seems logical that demand for improved range prediction is sufficiently high to motivate more automakers to follow this strategy in the future.